Forecasting foreign exchange rates ppt

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Published on Sep 12, Pay in instalments and that too after you receive the first draft. Please visit and like our Facebook page www. You can also add me on Skype ghostwritingmania or email me ghostwritingmania yahoo. Looking forward to working together on long term. Clipping is a handy way to collect and organize the most important slides from a presentation. You can keep your great finds in clipboards organized around topics. SlideShare Explore Search You. RAP Sample OBU - RR Topic-8, Profes Show related SlideShares at end.

EducationTechnologyBusiness. Full Name Comment goes here. Are you sure you want to Yes No. Edan HanburySenior qualified Chartered Certified Accountant at Ashmore. Sam Baig - ACCA Finalist, CATBusiness Manager at Harry Industry Pvt LTD. Toheed AkramCorporate Finance and Assurance at Integrated Equities PVT Limited. Embeds 0 No embeds. No notes for slide. You can also add me on Skype ghostwritingmaniaor email me ghostwritingmania yahoo. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 2 Project Objectives and Research Approach: For any organization to breath it is essential that it copes with environment through its strengths and strategies and manages finance effectively.

Even more, this has been the major part of my studies and I had a chance to enhance my knowledge and develop practical skills in the area. Reasons for choosing the Industry: I chose automobile industry as it is a major sector of the country having a major contribution to the economy. Secondly, I wanted to know about challenges being faced by the auto sector during the financial crisis.

Reason for choosing the Company: Honda Atlas is a joint venture between Honda Motor Company Japan and the Atlas Group of Companies Pakistan. The Company incorporated about 20 years ago in The reason I chose this Company is that it is one of the few leading carmakers in Pakistan having a strong share in overall automobile industry. Another reason was my personal fascination with the brand. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 3 Project Aims and Objectives: I aim to achieve the following objectives: Know how successful it has been in generating earnings and covering and controlling costs in the relevant periodby analysing profitability of the Company.

Analyse the short-term liquidity of the Company during the financial crunch. Understand the impact of its capital structure on its long-term solvency. Carrying out business analysis of the Company to: Obtain an understanding of the impact of the external pressures on the internal operations and policies. Examine the competitive pressures being faced by the Company. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 4 Research Questions: How will I utilize my time in order to complete my project within time?

What sources of information will I access to gain the necessary information? What models will be used in order to achieve objectives of my RAP?

Which ratios will be calculated and interpreted for the financial analysis? What models should be used to target my objective for the business analysis?

What are the required IT skills? What ethical problems I might face during the research? To initiate I will gather general information about the Automobile industry to gain an understanding of current and future prospects of the industry and the factors that are affecting it. Then I will develop an understanding about the Company that I require for the purpose of my analysis. After that I will calculate and then interpret financial ratios using information that I gathered during my initial research.

Then, using appropriate business models and techniques I will try to comprehend the effects of the macro-environment on the policies and operations of the Company. I will also try to verify and validate my assumptions through different information sources. I intend to use both primary and secondary sources to gather and validate information about the Company.

Then on the basis of my analysis I will draw conclusions and will give recommendations accordingly. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 5 Information gathering and business models used Sources of Information: Two sources could be exploited for the purpose of information collection; The Primary and the Secondary sources.

Primary Information sources are those that are closest to actual event, time period or individual in question. These present original thinking and observations such as original research used to write journal articles, reporting on original scientific studies, experiments or observations Solomon, Wilson and Taylor, Secondary sources of information consist of descriptions and explanations that are created after a historical event has already taken place American BookWorks Corporation, Wide range of secondary sources was used to corroborate the information and to validate the interpretations made in the financial and business analysis.

The following sources were used: These reports provided general information about the Company and data to be used for purpose of ratios calculation. They were used to get the related information about the automobile industry and the Company.

ACCA and other Textbooks: Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 6 ACCA Student Accountants Magazines: They were used to keep an eye on the articles to keep updated with the latest developments in the profession.

Limitations of Data Gathering: Seeking newspapers and searching over the internet used to bring a lot of data and hunting the exact requirement absorbed a lot of energy and occupied a lot of time. Different analysts had conflicting views and generated confusion about future prospects of the government, industry and the Company.

It was often strenuous to make judgment. The library had just a few numbers of latest editions of books and they often were not available being issued to other students and numerous visits to library were need to made. Confidentiality was not an issue as all the information used was publicly available.

During the preparation of thesis, I interacted with certain people of undesirable attitudes but I maintained professional behaviour. Referring to latest editions of the books and student accountant magazines I kept myself upgrade with professional updates. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 7 Business and Financial Models used: The techniques and models that I used for the purpose of Business and Financial analysis are: It can be used to develop a set of statistics that reveal key financial characteristics of a Company.

Droms and Wright, Advantages: Makes easy to grasp relationships between various items. Provides comparative study of various businesses.

Highlights changes that took place between time periods. Often future forecasting becomes difficult with ratios. Murthy and Gurusamy, SWOT Analysis: Impetus to analyse a situation and develop suitable strategies. Assesses core capabilities and competences. Evidence for and cultural key to change. Descriptive rather than analytical. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 8 PEST Analysis: Increase awareness of environmental change.

Acts as an early warning to anticipate opportunities and threats and plan accordingly. Contradicting changes may take place. Pace of change may create unpredictability. By the time one change is addressed another may have occurred. It defines competitive intensity and therefore the attractiveness of a market. Grunig and Kuhn, Advantages: Enables organisation to determine attractiveness of a particular industry. Enables organisation to assess its ability to compete effectively in the industry.

forecasting foreign exchange rates ppt

Provide indication of the future profits in the industry. It implies suppliers, buyers and competitors are threats whereas strategies could be made by collaboration.

It implies that five forces equally apply to all competitors in the industry whereas forces may differ from business to business. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 9 Results, Analysis, Conclusions and Recommendations: Industry Information and Company Profile: Rohail, Currently there is investment of PKR 98 billion Pakistan Today, in the auto sector and its contribution to the GDP is more than 12 billion rupees and to the national exchequer is PKR 40 billion Toyota, a.

EDB is seeking to even increase this contribution. Inflation and exchange rates variations have strained costs. Another challenge for the local carmakers is the increase of age limit of imported used cars from 3 to 5 years Khan and Khan, HACPL is one of the major car assemblers in Pakistani market Khan, It has its Sales, Services and Spare Parts dealership networks spread around in all the major cities of the country.

It offers four brands: Honda CR-V, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Honda City. The GP decreased by Costs inflated uncontrollably following the recession which in-turn negatively influenced the inflation and exchange rates fluctuations.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 11 also levied by the government Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, a.

Due to the financial crisis and therefore, weakening purchasing power parity, overall sales went down. To exacerbate, most banks withdrew car financing facilities Hallian, GP therefore fell due to the worsening economy, lost sales and certain future events that management could not have predicted beforehand. There was further a larger decrease in GP of HACPL remained deficient in controlling costs due to economic upset.

The underutilization of the capacity kept pressure on the production costs Interview, Appendix. Later this period economic condition improved and commercial banks restored their position in consumer financing Osama, encouraging the demand despite rising costs.

The government helped a little by withdrawing the FED on locally assembled cars Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, b. The Company therefore achieved growth in sales but due to large increase in costs that could not be completely passed on to the customers binary stock trading canada to competitive prices Interview, Appendix the GP fell significantly.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 12 FY leading indicators in binary options brokers GP attained health increasing by Sales considerably increased by Such an increase in COS was due to immense increase in Raw Materials costs bringing undue pressure on management to maintain the costs. Similarly, the cost of rubber also expanded globally Kumar, The introduction of new accessories Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, b also added to costs.

Fixed costs remained european ranking of brokers binary options due to capacity underutilization Interview, Appendix.

Sales increased incredibly KHan, It was deduced that the growth in the agricultural sector particularly Rabi season crops Khan, increased the spending of the country and the introduction of new accessories in the Honda cars captured the interest of customers.

The growth in car financing facilities also backed up the increase Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, c. Therefore, despite raised costs Company performed excellent in sales thus improving GP.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 13 Competitor Comparison Toyota has been the foremost competitor of HACPL and has been performing way better than HACPL in GP over the years due to its higher market share and costs management. Higher sales resulted in better capacity utilization and lower fixed costs than HACPL. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 14 NP Margin: The NP ratio reduced dramatically to Subsequent to fall in GP, Company reduced advertisement expenses despite launch of new models keeping costs under control.

FC remained unchanged as borrowing costs of raised long-term loans were capitalized to PPE. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, d Effective tax rate was NP declined to Following huge fall in GP, management extensively reduced advertisement expenses keeping costs under check.

forecasting foreign exchange rates ppt

Profit on bank runescape stock market price history graph sharply decreased shrinking profitability as after huge investments last year, Company commenced year with a heavy overdraft Interview, Appendix. Enlarged sales raised current tax by Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 15 FY As GP attained health, Company enhanced spending on advertisement of new car models with new accessories, burdening costs.

With healthier cash-flow status, Company gained enormous forecasting foreign exchange rates ppt in profit on deposits enjoying high deposit rates Figure 3, Appendix improving NP. Effective tax rate reached Unlike HACPL, Toyota kept forex apakah halal currency risk low by entering foreign exchange contracts Toyota, c and so lower exchange losses.

Toyota has not been using borrowings and so had much lesser FC than HACPL consisting only of mark-up on advances from customers and the bank binary options 5 dollar minimum deposit. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 16 ROCE: ROCE even deteriorated to ROCE improved to Consequently, ROCE became better but the persisted negative figure still presented poor utilization of resources.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 17 Competitor Comparison Toyota remained profitable and ungeared and has been earning much higher returns on CE than HACPL thus, much better ROCE. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 18 LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS Liquidity Ratios HACPL TOYOTA times Current Ratio 0. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, f 0 0. Research and Work from home jobs sandy utah Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 19 Matching just the liquid CA with CL gives QR of 0.

The destabilized liquidity concerned investors as it could lead to going-concern issue in future. CR worsened to 0. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, c QR improved just a little to 0. For Investors, even poorer liquidity meant trouble for the Sp binary options trading signals reviews in the future. CR increased insignificantly difference between realised and unrealised forex 0.

Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited, f Unlike HACPL, Toyota did not rely on short- term borrowings. Gearing Ratio of the Company rose to Besides reduction in equity due to huge rise in accumulated losses the large increment in long-term debt as Company obtained new loans for purpose of capital investments abruptly increased the gearing and discomforted the shareholders by increasing the financial risk.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 22 FY Gearing ratio rose to There was a work from home jobs rapid city sd fall in equity on account of huge increase in accumulated losses further elevating the gearing.

Company renewed its Long-term loans. The minor decrease in long-term loans figure was due to part of it becoming current. Raised gearing was of concern to investors as already negative profitability had to bear further FC.

Gearing ratio dropped to Long- term debt fell with larger percentage as Company fully repaid one forex rsi explained its loans and half of remaining loan became current.

Hence, Gearing relaxed decreasing ako uspesne obchodovat na forexe degree of risk of equity holders providing them ease.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 24 Interest Cover: Interest Cover turned Interest Cover was Interest Cover improved to As Company reduced its loans helped by credit payment facility by the Holding Company, there was a large decrease in FC. Shareholders thus remained disappointed.

Payable days were 10 rose from 3 days last year as creditors raised. Trade Creditors rose by Furthermore, Forex bureau guidelines 2011 heavily invested during the year in NCA. Therefore, due to feeble cash position, Company faced difficulty in payments increasing creditors affecting WC management adversely.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 27 FY Payable days halved to 5 owing to reduced creditors. However, with sales rising, dfo melbourne anzac day opening hours position grew stable and Company timely paid back its creditors and improved its WC management.

Payable days became 7 as creditors rose. Due to future doubt over CKDs supply chain being affected due to tsunami in Japan, Company was increasing stock of CKDs Interview, Appendix in attempt to avoid future stock outs, and thus raised trade payables. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 28 Inventory Days: Inventory days were 77 compared to 42 days last year as stock rose. The inventory days hence increased, undermining WC. Inventory days fell to 53 with decreased stock.

Forexpf.ru gold working capital thus improved. Inventory days rose to 58 with increased stock. Immense increase in raw material described this rising.

The stock market crash of the 1929 supplier, Japan struck by natural disaster was going to affect future CKD supplies and so Company was acquiring as much as it could to avoid stock outs Interview, Appendix.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 30 INVESTORS ANALYSIS Investor's Ratios HACPL TOYOTA Earning per Share PKR Number of shares did not change during the three years therefore the change in EPS has using option in forex trading solely because of the earnings. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 31 all three years of Competitor Comparison Toyota with healthy profits generated analysis of forex binary options EPS in all three years of Share price rose to PKR Despite notable rise in sales HACPL yet remained lossmaking as even costs rose significantly along with continuous poor liquidity.

Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 34 SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGHTS: Strong brand loyalty and smart marketshare. ISO QMS and EMS certified and therefore maximum quality focused and environmental friendly.

Countrywide sales, services and spare parts dealership forex trading tax uk and therefore presence and sales in all the major cities.

Credit support from the Holding Company on CKD supplies comforting cash position. Higher car pricesacting adversely on market share. Daily Times, Capacity underutilization creating high fixed costs. Not providing smaller cars that have the maximum demand. Pak Top 10, a Reliance on borrowings and therefore high FC.

Global demand for more fuel efficient cars such as hybrid cars and applying latest technology to target this demand can capture more market share. Deloitte, Higher demand for smaller cars and diversification therein can achieve enhanced market share and better capacity utilization.

PAKISTAN Today, THREATS: Rising fuel prices making use of cars uneconomical for consumer. Tirmizi, Power shortage distressing production. APP, Swelling raw material prices increasing input costs which may make production uneconomical.

Government supporting new competitors raising rivalry. Uncertainty over future supply of CKDs may lead to stock outs. The Dawn, Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 35 PEST ANALYSIS POLITICAL: Political factors are connected with government and its policies relating business.

Government is attempting to knot-up long-term automobile policies with Japan KHAN, Government is also providing free of cost seeds to boost up agriculture to advance economy and spending Asif, However, continued changing government policies are unpleasant for the auto sector Interview, Appendix and government is not trusted by foreign investors. Government raised sales tax and age and depreciation limit of imported used cars to inspire competition.

AIDP which was set to take the auto sector up is expiring in near future and needs to be redeveloped Rind, Power shortage has not for long been resolved by government keeping industry under operational constraints. Economy has gone down. In recent years inflation has run very high. This means expensive inputs, increased selling price and affected sales.

Interest rates have gone up generating higher return on deposits but resulting in higher borrowing costs. Regularly rising fuel prices are making use and manufacturing of cars uneconomical.

Forecasting Exchange Rates

Recent floods left devastating effects on agriculture sector massively declining farm income though government is promoting the sector that will rise future spending. Although car financing facilities are growing Sabir,economy has touched the worst extensively weakening purchasing power with worst effects on imports. Most Pakistani population are middle class families Jafri, mostly being able to afford small economical compact cars.

HACPL only offers subcompact luxurious cars with high maintenance and prices. Japan tsunami has disrupted the supply chain raising car and spare parts prices which will further discourage demand for expensive cars. High illiteracy Javed, means shortages of educated and capable workforce resulting in high training costs but cheap labour availability. Technological factors relate to the availability and reliability of the technology in the country required by a business. Public has alternative sources too such as smuggled parts at low prices and cheap imitates.

Government has spent heavily on roads infrastructure Business recorder, HACPL provides countrywide auto-parts and services. These are the threats that potential new entrants will enter market.

Existing carmakers including HACPL have gathered a vast know how of customers and have created brand loyalty building barriers to entry. Capital requirements are high.

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However HACPL has not been able to achieve economies of scale working far under capacity. Switching costs are low. Government is providing relief to newcomers by reducing levies on imports for primary years Rind, and encouraging Indian Ali,South Korean and Chinese manufacturers Hussain, Therefore, threat is high.

There are alternative sources people can use to travel by like motorbikes and public transports including busses, vans and three wheelers but these are in no comparison with a personal own car. With regular increase in fuel prices such as petrol, diesel and CNG, the customers are turning to lower maintenance, lower fuel consumption cars i.

Nevertheless, by maintaining quality at affordable prices HACPL has created strong brand loyalty and Honda users would prefer not to move to lower quality products. Therefore threat is low. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 37 These are the factors that indicate position of suppliers of the industry.

For auto sector there are technological and other auto-parts required. For technological parts HACPL depends on Holding Company and the group to supply parts. Bargaining power here would be high. As for suppliers of other parts such as steel, aluminium, rubber etc. Hence, the overall threat is moderate. These are the factors that indicate the position of the customers of the industry. Bargaining power of customers is high as there are many options available to them including competing carmakers and lower price imported cars.

It has developed dealership networks all around the country providing sales and after sales services. The government however, is putting pressure on automakers to reduce their prices Jamal, The power is high. These describe the nature of local market competition.

The local market has become saturated, main rivals being the leading carmakers. Plus government has raised competition by providing relief to used imported cars. There are price wars going on between rivals and costs to exit the business are high. Government is still trying to bring in new competitors which mean that already under capacity working companies would face more trouble. The competition therefore, is very high. However, its performance in recent years remained lacklustre.

Devastating floods further eroded the situation. Interest rates kept raising FC but brought in high profits on deposits too. Government remained unkind by raising sales tax and encouraging competition. The foreign exchange contracts safeguarded it from exchange losses.

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Being ungeared, it kept its FC minimal. Short-term liquidity of Company too remained ominous. In FY09 huge investments by Company placed it in weak cash position. Company obtained short-term loan for working capital purposes which endangered its short-term liquidity. Lately, though Company improved the cash status and paid off short-term borrowings but high other payables kept short-term liquidity risky.

However, credit help by Holding Company to some extent comforted HACPL. Toyota did not rely on short-term borrowings because of high cash levels maintained and so had much better short-term liquidity.

Long-term solvency too has not been very satisfactory. Company has been relying on long-term loans aiming to finance capital investments hence raising gearing. Though lately gearing relaxed, the negative interest cover during these years was of concern.

This was on account of financial losses and raised FC. Toyota remained independent of long-term borrowings and had durable solvency. The working capital remained questionable as well. Adequate level of inventory has not been maintained as well.

This resulted in decreased share price. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 39 HACPL has certain strengths such as strong brand loyalty created by providing luxury at reasonable prices and strong market share but it needs to cope with weaknesses like capacity underutilization and high production costs. The External environment has to be looked upon too. Deteriorated economic factors of inflation, interest rates, taxes, depreciated currency, raw material and fuel prices had unfavourable impacts.

There is high demand for smaller cars, illiteracy and cheap labour availability. Original auto-parts should be made available at reasonable prices to prevent losing customers to cheap parts.

Barriers to entry by existing players and capital requirements are high but government is supporting new entrants. Although there are no other substitutes but competitors lower maintenance cars and imported used cars. Numerous providers, imported used cars and low switching costs create high customer power.

The saturated market has created rivalry in the sector leading to price wars. Although the country is emerging market for automobiles, political uncertainty and terrorist activities are creating challenges. Economy has yet not recovered. Inflation and depreciating currency are expected to keep necessities high. Raw materials like steel are rising and future availability of CKDs is a question.

Rising fuel prices will create smaller cars demand. Though government is to reduce 3. Therefore I think the sector has challenging future. However, much is dependent on successor government that follows after elections. Research and Analysis Project Honda Atlas Cars [Pak] Ltd 40 Recommendations: I would recommend that HACPL should: Try to reduce production costs through effective management.

Hedge against currency risk. Try to increase credit period by building healthy relations with suppliers. Think about diversifying in smaller cars segment as this opportunity will incredibly raise market share leading to better capacity utilization. RAP Sample OBU - RR Topic-8, Professional writing services by ghostwritingman Oxford Brookes ACCA RAP Thesis Topic-8, Writing and Mentoring Services. Oxford Brookes Topic 17 approved sample. Sample Oxford Brookes BSC Hons OBU RAP Thesis Writing and Mentoring Services.

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